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ES Morning Update January 11th, 2017

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Well, the futures are resting on the edge of cliff where support has been at for quite some time now.  Will they breakdown is anyone's' guess but charts suggests they are running out of time.  The SPX Cash charts are very bearish now but as we know they use the futures to keep the cash from collapsing, therefore manipulating the charts.  But that's probably why they invented the futures in the first place I'd guess.  Everyday after the market closes they drive the charts on the futures down into oversold territory so by the open the next day they will want to go up.  This fights with the cash charts that are overbought and want to to down.  If they do this game for long enough they can get the cash charts oversold without actually letting the price level drop that much.  Then they can start another rally by getting the futures oversold too therefore aligning them together the next day point up with the cash index.  This is where these gap up and squeezes all day happen.

Right now though the SPX Cash index is still pointing down and want to take the price level down with it.  The futures are mixed right now as they aren't really that oversold or overbought, which leads to a day where you can really see any good setups.  I've drawn a new falling trendline (in blue), so if the bulls get control of the market and stage a rally that blue line is where I'd look for it to stop at.  Doesn't mean I'd go long as again... I don't see any edge for either side this morning.  Of course if the bears get control then the first support going down is the double bottom from the 5th at 2254.00 and then the 2245 zone of support.  Best support is the double bottom at 2228.00 from 12/30.

Considering how light the volume is every day now I have to just sit on my hands here as bulls usually win during such periods as it easier to rally on thin volume.  But the charts are still bearish and suggest a breakdown is coming... but when?  Will they allow it to happen today or will they chop around all day and push out any drop until Thursday?  I don't know of course but I'll remain bearish against that blue falling trendline as I see lower prices in the coming days ahead.  Timing the exact day and minute that the drop starts is like playing Russian Roulette... you just never know when the next one is "THE ONE".

ES Morning Update January 10th, 2017

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Ok guys, the futures have fell since Friday as I mentioned in the chatroom that we could have put in a temporary top.  But this morning they are hanging around at horizontal support in the 2265 range.  The MACD's on this 60 minute chart are coming up from oversold afterhours and near the zero line, so there's no clues there as it could rollover or continue up.  The 6 hour chart shows a little more though... and it looks bearish to me.  This leads me to think that 60 minute MACD will rollover at some point today and only allow the futures to put in a "lower high" then Friday.

Put simply... based on the various charts I study I think we aren't done on the pullback but today is short term bullish.  Meaning that early in the day the bulls have the charts in their favor but at anytime we could see them rollover and support in the 2265 zone break.  It's just more of the same old grind where the big boys are selling lightly everyday and once they are finish we'll see the market pullback nicely.  I'd certainly like to see DOW 20,000 get hit to make the bulls happy so we could get some decent selling started.  But SkyNet doesn't give me what I want.  In fact it always tries to trick me... hence the reason I stated on Friday near the close that I thought we'd pullback (NOT hitting the DOW 20,000 mark but getting really close) and then make another run up later this week or next to finally hit it.

So, here we are on day two of this week and not much has happened.  I'm thinking that if today does turn out to be a "pause" day (slightly green, but NO new high) then we might see the rest of the pullback into a Thursday/Friday low this week.  Anyway... one day at a time.  Todays' forecast is slightly bullish in morning and bearish later in the day with a possible "green close" today that would likely led to a breakdown of the 2265 support on Wednesday.

ES Morning Update January 9th, 2017

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Almost everything I see is at extremes now.  Of course the market will sometimes push a little farther to make it even more extreme from time to time.  But this week should be the real challenge for the bulls as if there is going to be a pullback it should happen this week.  And let's not forget that Trump gets sworn into office on the 20th, which is the week after this one.  Traders ran up the market after he won back in November and should flip and do the opposite just before it's official that he's our new president.

So, I'm looking for a top early this week (like today) or it might have been put in last Friday.  Personally I think it was put in Friday but since the DOW never hit 20,000 I'm giving the bulls another day or two to reach that important milestone.  However, many times when everyone is looking for a level to short at the bulls fall just shy of it and start the pullback without the bears on-board.  This could be the case here as the DOW was just .37 cents shy of it's target hitting an intraday high of 19,999.63 on Friday.  That's a lot of "nines" in that number we all know that "nine" is the number of "completion" in numerology... and the rulers of this stock market like to use numerology in their rituals.  Remember that on March 6th, 2009 the SPX hit 666 as it's intraday low.  On August 25th, 1987 the intraday low on the SPX was 333.33, and that marked the day the high for the year was put in on.  Of course just 2 months later the market crashed with Black Monday, (October 19th)... so make no mistake about it, numerology is used in the market.  Whether last Fridays intraday high on the DOW was part of it or not is still unknown.

For short term I'd look for a move down today early and then a slow grind back up to make a lower (or possibly tag that DOW 20,000?) and then if all goes well we should see a "more steady" decline on Tuesday.

ES Morning Update January 6th, 2017

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Not much to add that wasn't said yesterday.  The bulls are still in control and should make another run for 2270 today with good odds of busting through it and running stops.  If the fail today odds will favor the bears next week as we should start a nice pullback into the 20th when Trump gets sworn into office.  Then I'm guessing we'll have another rally back up into the end of January.  So if today they don't run the stop above 2270 and try to touch 2300 on the futures and 20,000 on the DOW then that leaves it open from them to revisit again either toward the end of this month or some summer rally.  Either way the bulls aren't going to just died and let the market drop 20% without tagging DOW 20,000 and SPX 2300.  When it comes is still unknown?  There maybe too many people waiting to short that level right now so SkyNet might decide to just start the pullback next week just double topping the futures around 2270 leaving the 2300 level for a future time.

Meaning... I'm a not a bull after today as next week we should pullback.  Now that doesn't mean I'm a strong bear, it only means I wouldn't be buying any more "call options" and would rather start slowly by selling "call credit spreads" with the mindset that it will just start slowly down next week and be choppy as it starts its' decent down.  With options you really only want to short the "C wave" or "wave 3" down as the other waves just chop you to death and eat away the time value of them.  Anyway, after today's attempt at busting through 2270 I'll be throwing in the towel on the bulls reaching 2300, or more specifically the SPY reaching its' old FP from 2015 showing 230... which is about 2300 on the SPX Cash and maybe 2290 or so the ES Futures.  I'd like to see it hit today but SkyNet see's how many bears are waiting to short that zone and very well could decide to start the pullback at a lower level (like just a double top of 2270) and make them chase the move down.

Pattern-wise nothing has changed we still have an inverted head and shoulders pattern that points to about another 30 point move up from this area.  Its' formed a 2nd rising wedge but the first one just barely dropped 8 points from it's breakdown point.  Historic pattern only show that the week prior to the 3rd Friday of the month there's usually a low put in on the Thursday or Friday.  That's next week of course.  So there you have it... have a good weekend everyone.

ES Morning Update January 5th, 2017

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Ok gang, as you can see the bulls have pushed above the yellow trendline of support and the black trendline of support that was intercepting it.  The sharp rising black trendline that made the wedge has been broken but with the other two trendlines of prior resistance now acting as support I don't hold much weight now to the breaking of that wedge.  The sideways movement is making a nice bull flag that could play out later today or Friday.

On the MACD's of this 60 minute chart we can see them dropping from +2.5 to about zero right now.  But the price level just chopped sideways, which is common with light volume.  It's also the common way a bull flag sets up.  Once the MACD's get oversold enough (happens a lot around the zero line, but you have to also look at the 2 hour, 4 hour and 6 hour MACD's) it should turn back up and the bull flag should then break to the upside.

So, for today I'm expecting more sideways chop early in the day and possibly all day long.  Then tomorrow (or late today, but odds favor Friday) we should see that breakout run to the upside to hit the 2270 prior top and most likely run the stops overhead of it.  That's commonly 10-20 points of stops... meaning we could see it tag 2290 if there's enough stops to run.  So I'd just wait if you are a bear and if you are a bull there's likely another push higher coming and it should happen into Friday.

ES Morning Update January 4th, 2017

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Here we are again, back up at the same zone as if yesterdays' pullback never happened.  That's typical for the light volume periods I guess.  The overall bigger picture on the daily chart is bearish but oversold on the Full Stochastic and overbought on the MACD's.  What it suggests to me is that the charts aren't aligned up correctly yet for another run up to the 2270 prior top zone with the hopes of busting on through to tag 2300.  But we are a little too oversold on the short term to allow any big drop as well.

Patternwise we have an "inverted head and shoulders" and a rising wedge.  The first is bullish and the 2nd bearish.  The light volume is bullish but at some point later this week and next week the volume should pick up again, and that suggests any down move would be larger as it would have more sellers with it then "buy the dippers".  I honestly don't have any high odds forecast today.  Overall (the big picture) we know the bulls want 2300 (and we have the old FP on the SPY showing 230), but the current picture for today is mixed.  If the volume is kept low then the bulls might just take a slow grind up the rising trendline of support on the wedge pattern.  Of course if the wedge breaks then we could see another drop with a retest of the 2240 as first support then the 2228 level from 12/30 as next support.

Again, I don't have high odds on either case today as the charts are all mixed, but I'd go with bulls 60% and bears 40% if forced too.  It's not something I would trade as I'd rather wait for the 2270 level to short at and average into shorts up to 2290 or so.  Then I'd hold and look for 2200 to be tested by the middle of January or so.  That's what I think will happen but all the little moves in between are tough to forecast.  Anyway, for today I see no trades with my preferred "guess" being a slow grind up.

ES Morning Update January 3rd, 2017

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I hope everyone had a great holidays.  Here we are into another new year and it seems like we were partying like it's 1999 just yesterday.  But it's been 17 years now since the new millennium and a lot has changed.  Most of America was on dial up back then as the internet was just a baby starting to walk.  As crazy as it sounds computers were like antics as well with their "off white" colored cases (beige) and huge "tube type" monitors that make better aquariums today.  Just go back and watch the beginning of the movie called "The Matrix" to see how ancient Neo's computer.  He was selling floppy disks to people with stuff he had hacked.  Times have really changed now as life and technology move forward at breakneck speeds.

Anyway, for the markets today and this week I'm looking for more light volume rangebound trading as they try once again for the magnetic 2300 level on the futures and the spx cash.  But I don't really expect them to get past it as it's clearly a level that the big boys are selling into.  However, another run back up to the current highs is likely.  And there should be some quick exhaustion push through it on a final bear squeeze at some point this week.  So we could see 2280-2290 on the futures and maybe touch 2300 on the spx.  On the SPY we should see that old FP from 2015 hit, which is 230... and that should be about it for now I think.  I'd look to be shorting that zone if it's reached this week.

My thoughts are that we'll drop to retest the 2200 level by the end of next week after a move up this week to retest the 2270 top (and should pierce through it a little).  That area should be bought in the 3rd week as we go into the swearing in for Trump on the 20th.  It should not be another new all time high though.  It will more then likely just be some nice bounce to put in a lower high with another move down shortly there afterwards in February.  January should be down mid-month and up at the end of the month.  Back to today... we are overhead resistance currently and support is back down at the 2230 low.  It's likely the bulls don't have much more juice today but the bears are still sleeping.  Meaning that I wouldn't expect much of a drop today but a small pullback is more likely then another 10-15 point move up.

ES Morning Update December 21st 2016

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More of the same is expected today guys... a slow grind up riding the black rising trendline it looks like.  Not quite a "Ground Hog Day" like the movie but might as well be one as it's not something worth trading to me.  I'll make this my last post for this week and be back next week.  Everyone have a great Christmas holiday.

ES Morning Update December 20th 2016

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Once again I'm showing you the 6 hour chart to get a better view of the MACD's as on the 60 minute chart they have been hard to read as they bouncing up and down around the zero line.  So, as I suggested could happen the MACD's here are curling up giving the futures the breakout of the triangle.  This move up though is weak (so far at least).

It's again the "slow grind" moves that are common in light volume holiday periods.  Of course at some point we might see some stronger push as several different time frames align on their MACD's all pointing up, but it doesn't look like that's the cast today.  This grind can easily continue the rest of this year I'm sure as the holiday volume keeps the sellers away.

Anyway, there not much more to say today then yesterday.  I don't see anything huge on the upside but at some point is certainly seems possible that we'll hit 2300 on the SPX and 20,000 on the DOW.  Today is another day where only single people that are addicted to trading will be around to read this... LOL!

ES Morning Update December 19th 2016

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Good Morning everyone.  I'm not expecting much this week as it's so close to Christmas that very few traders will be around.  That suggests the usually sideways chop to a slow float higher.  I don't see much more on the upside beyond 2300 but nothing surprises me anymore from the bulls.  So while I'm not interested in going long looking for 2300 I'm also not interesting in shorting until the first of the new year.  We could chop sideways just as easily as charts are at extreme levels now on the upside so chasing this last move up seems risky too me.

As you can see we have a triangle pattern with the new yellow trendline as the breakout resistance.  Since it rose up from the 2200 level around the first of December and then chopped sideways you could make a weak pennant flag out of it as well.  A strong one would be a big up day in one or two strong white bars to make the flag pole of the pennant appear more straight up instead of leaning down to the right as the move from the 2200 area break to the 2270 top did.  Anyway, the pennant is just like a bull flag only the flag part is in the form of a triangle like what we have now.  It's also a bullish pattern.  So, considering the extremely light volume expected this week odds favor a breakout to the upside on this pattern.

There's also the MACD's on the 6 hour chart that are working off the overbought conditions of being up around 12.5 to now have fallen down to 2.5 or so.  Around the zero level it's common to see a turn back up.  If that happens today or tomorrow then a breakout to the upside could happen.  Naturally this pattern could fail too, especially when you are already so high and overbought.  Patterns like this are better when coming off a strong low.  So a failed pattern is also possible but again, don't expect too much on the downside on a holiday week.  I'd be shocked to see 40 points down, as 20 points down seems more likely with everyone taking this week off for Christmas.

On the news front Janet Yellen speaks today at 1:30 PM EST, so possibly that's when we'll see the breakout happen (or breakdown?).  Nothing much on Tuesday but the rest of the week have a few news events that are "market moving", it's just that even if they are viewed bad the selling on the downside seems limited going into Christmas.  I'll be cutting out early this week too and I think Wednesday will be my last post until after Christmas.  I am expecting another drop in January though, but I don't know how severe or if it starts on the 2nd like this year did as it could squeeze higher a little the first few days to fool us sheep and then drop?  SkyNet is tricky so we'll have to be prepared for anything I'm sure.  Nothing more to add gang...

ES Morning Update December 16th 2016

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Well gang, looks like the futures are still hanging on like I suggested they might do because it's a Friday and they don't usually tank it before the weekend.  Looking now at this March contract of the ES Futures I had to redraw the trendlines so I just kept it clean and only drew the two most important ones.  As you can see we've already broken-through the rising trendline from the "Trump Dump" low and are now riding the rising resistance trendline that is acting as support now.

My forecast for today is that we stay between those two trendlines and dump on Monday if we make a slightly higher high today.  If we don't but put in a double top I still think we'll have good odds of a dump on Monday.  But if we close red a little and ride the trendline that's acting as support right now I'd go neutral into Monday as they could do one more pop high first and then drop.  Meaning that they might continue this chop up here until they touch 20,000 on the DOW (at least intra-day, possibly a closing price?), which would probably put these futures in the 2280-2290 area, not quite 2300.  I still think we'll hit that level but it might not be until after the pullback with the Santa rally that takes us into the end of the year.  So, my thoughts are that a pullback is coming but it could be delayed a few more days as they seems to have some targets unfinished yet (like the DOW 20,000 touch).

ES Morning Update December 15th 2016

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Well, the Fed day is over with and rates will be raises as expected.  The futures have rolled over and now look to be in pullback mode for several days.  This 6 hour chart gives you a better picture then the normal 60 minute chart as it gives you a clearer look at the MACD's, which are pointing down nicely now.  There is also a nice bear flag showing up with the down move yesterday making the flag pole and the three sideways bars (each bar is 6 hours) making the flag.

It certainly looks to me like we'll be dropping for a few days at this point.  Possibly the 60 minute chart could turn back up and hold the price level in a tight range today, maybe even close green?  But it doesn't look like it has the power to make a new all time high today or even get to a double top.  The best the bears could hope for is a slightly green close to short into Friday for the breakdown of the bear flag.  This assumes it doesn't breakdown today of course as predicting the breakdown point is tough sometimes.

Support on the way down is right around 2200 for the strongest area.  Minor support around 2240 or so.  To me this looks like we'll see some kind of ABC move down for our pullback and then back up for the Santa rally to retest the highs again (and probably break them to hit the old 230 FP on the SPY, which again is about 2300 SPX).  But of course nothing is "for sure", so let's cross that bridge after the pullback is finished and the rally starts.  For now I'd look for slow and controlled pullback for a few days to get the charts oversold while keep the point loss on the price level to a minimum.

Scarlett Johansson On Ghost In The Shell And The Challenge Of Playing A Cyborg

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It’s hard for Scarlett Johansson to talk about her new film, Ghost in the Shell, without diving into some of the same esoteric philosophical debates at the center of its source material, Mamoru Oshii’s groundbreaking 1995 anime: What is it that makes us human? Is it our physical being, or is it our experiences?

In Rupert Sanders’s forthcoming live-action Ghost in the Shell, Johansson plays an elite government-issued cyborg known solely as The Major whose body has been replaced with cybernetic parts — but her human brain is still intact. “She’s not living a human existence,” the actress told MTV News during a press event in Tokyo. “She’s not living a fully robotic existence, either.”

Johansson described the film as less of an origin story and more of a “coming-of-age story” for The Major. The decision to cast Johansson as Major Motoko Kusanagi, as she’s known in Masamune Shirow’s original manga series, drew ire from fans who criticized it as yet another example of Hollywood whitewashing. However, Sanders stands by his decision, telling MTV News and a group of reporters in Tokyo, “Whenever you cast someone, someone’s going to be critical of it. To me, I stand by my decision. [Johnansson’s] the best actress of her generation.”

Sanders also made it clear that Ghost in the Shell isn’t a remake of Oshii’s genre-defining work; it’s a reimagining. When we meet The Major at the beginning of the film, her job is her main focus. She has dedicated herself to thwarting cybercriminals and hackers partly because she feels disconnected from herself.

“She never sleeps. She never really shuts off,” Johansson said. “She has vague memories of who she was before she became The Major and she has a connection to who she was through her relationship with [Juliette Binoche’s character] Ouelet and the people who work at Hanka — they remind her of what her story was — but the experiences that they’re living around her are totally unfamiliar to her.”

With the introduction of Michael Pitt’s cyberterrorist Kuze, a full cyborg similar to The Major, she begins to question the very nature of her own existence. “She starts to have these glitches and flashbacks of things she’s not really sure if she remembers or if they’re things that were implanted in her,” Johansson said. “As she gets closer to the enemy, she strangely gets closer to herself.”

The film ultimately asks an important question: Are we who we are because we’re a product of our past, or are we who we are because of the experience that we’re living? One of the only characters The Major confides in with these philosophical queries is Batou (Pilou Asbæk), her right-hand man in the Section 9 task force.

“I think Batou is the character that Major feels the closest human connection with,” she said. “He’s someone who is very much himself. He’s been through the tragedy and loss of war. He’s lived a very human experience. She’s curious about that. Through his experiences, she feels like she’s able to absorb some of them and understand how the past informs the person that you are.”

“It’s also a playful relationship, and in some other universe, it’s romantic — or it could be,” she added.

Still, The Major’s existential crisis doesn’t feel that unfamiliar to Johansson, whose roles in films like Her and Under the Skin have explored a similar sense of detachment between the real and synthetic. It’s a challenge that the actress finds intriguing: stripping away all of the nuances and physical ticks that make us human. With The Major, who is disconnected from her human body, the challenge for Johansson became “that split second when your brain is telling your robot body it’s doing something — what’s that like?”

However, with Ghost in the Shell, Johansson admitted, “I think I’ve pushed that genre as far as I can go.”

Ghost in the Shell hits theaters March 31, 2017.


Guys, remember that is was the movie "Lucy" that she also played in where we got the mini-crash date on her passport showing August 24th 2015.  Could this movie have more codes in it showing the next crash date?

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ES Morning Update December 14th 2016

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We are finally here gang... Judgement Day (as said in the Terminator Movie).  What will SkyNet do with the market after the FOMC minutes are released?  Will it run the longs out of town on fear with a quick drop?  Or will it tighten the vice a little more on the bears with another squeeze higher into the old FP on the SPY of 230?  Only time will tell of course.

My thoughts are two fold... one thinks we'll hit the FP by Friday of this week from some final squeeze after the FOMC meeting.  The second thinks we might have already topped and will pullback 40-80 point going into Christmas before the Santa rally takes us back up to hit the 230 print by the close of this year.  Either one forecasts the fake print will be hit.

I'd love to have a crystal ball and tell you where it's going and when, but I don't.  Most traders are pretty fed up with this non stop grind up every day with next to nothing for a pullback.  But that's the new market it seems.  SkyNet knows traders are counting waves and looking for pullbacks to get in a trade on... so it doesn't give it to you.  It's up 200-300 SPX point, then a one day mini-crash of limit down 100 points, and back up again for 2-3 months with tiny pullbacks of 5-10 points.  Yeah, it sucks... but that's life in the S&P500 as it's clearly the most heavily manipulated market in the world.

Anyway, enough about that.  Let's just see what happens after the FOMC meeting.  Remember that in the past most meeting days had the market closing green.  So even after some shakeout to the down side they usually reversed it back up into the close.  Will it happen this time is the question of course as many old patterns and statistics just don't seem to be as accurate now days as they were in the past.

ES Morning Update December 13th 2016

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Not much to add guys.  We are inching up a little more this more getting closer and closer to that old FP on the SPY from last November.  At this rate we should hit it before this week ends I think.  Again, 230 on the SPY is around 2300 on the SPX Cash and just a hair under that on the futures.  The December futures that expire this week are running about 5 points lower then cash right now but that can change with the roll to the new contracts for March of 2017.  Regardless, the 2300 area is the target +/- a few points lower or higher.

Anyway, today is likely to be another boring day as everyone waits for Janet Yellen to tell us if the Fed's are going to raise rates or not?  I really doubt if the decision matters as whatever it is the market has likely already priced it in.  Plus we know the target via the FP on the SPY.  So we just drink some more coffee, yawn a little while we do it, and leave early today as the market gives us nothing to do but watch.

ES Morning Update December 12th 2016

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Good Monday Morning to everyone.  Looks like we might have finally stalled out the bulls for a day at least as chart suggest a flat to slightly down day.  No point in going into a long drawn out update here as we all know the market is likely to continue this light volume movement until the FOMC meeting this Wednesday.

With the SPY closing at 226.51 last Friday it seems more and more likely that we'll see that 230 FP from last November 14th, 2015 hit at some point soon.  Most likely we'll see it within 1-2 days after the FOMC meeting I'm thinking.  Possibly it could be hit from some shake out squeeze up right after the minutes of the meeting are announced at 2pm this Wednesday?  Hard to know the when part of course but I suspect we'll see it by the end of this week seems likely.

Short term it looks like we could finally see the rising trendline come into play by the close today or even afterhours as if we chop sideways to slightly down we should hit it at some point soon.  As for trading it... I don't see anything that looks like a great setup right now.

ES Morning Update December 9th 2016

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Pretty amazing the strength of the market right now.  I thought the bull flag would need more time to play out but it played out midday yesterday never even getting close to the rising trendline of support (pointing to around 2235) that I thought it might touch first before lifting of higher again.  But the market had other plans it seems.  If only I could figure out the dates that all FP's are supposed to be hit it would make it much easier for sure.  At least we have the 230 FP on the SPY from last year, which at this point I'd have to say is the target this market wants to go to.  That's about 2300 on the futures and SPX and while that might seem crazy it very well could be hit by the FOMC meeting next Wednesday.  If it doesn't hit before it then my guess is that they will do some fast squeeze up to that level right after it.

Now the big question is... will the market top there and turn back down?  I wish I knew the answer but I don't.  In the past all the FP's I've captured were only targets that "they" planned on hitting, but not always "turning points".  Some were and some just consolidated there and continued in the same direction..  However, considering the fact that the FOMC day could be when it happens I'd have to think a turn would be more likely as we've seen many many Fed day produce a turn within a couple of days after the meeting.  Anyway, there's not much else to go on for an upside target.  They reset the MACD's on this 60 minute chart back down to neutral, so it could turn back up and continue higher today... or just drift lower and chop sideways into that black rising trendline I spoke of earlier.  At least some short term top seems likely within a few days as the VIX is near record lows and has a history of bouncing from that zone many times in the past.

ES Morning Update December 8th 2016

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Here we are again it seems.  Another dude news event that most though would move the market but instead we are flat this morning.  So, as you can all see this sideways move afterhours and premarket has produced a nice bull flag on this 2 hour chart of the ES Futures.  Considering that market is always trying to go higher and prevented from crashing through support from the Fed and the ECB in Europe I have to think this bull flag will play out.  But I certainly wouldn't chase it up for anything more then just a quick daytrade scalp.  Too me the risk of a fast drop is much greater then another big squeeze higher like yesterday.  Ultimately it looks like they are trying to hit the old FP on the SPY from last November 14th of 230, or 2300 on the SPX/ES.  Maybe they hit it next week when the Fed's have the next FOMC meeting?

Anyway, what I'd look for today is a sideways action until they reset the 60 minute chart enough to turn back up again for this bull flag.  If they can't get it today (remember that it's common to have a "pause" day after a big move up like yesterday) I'd look for it to play out afterhours or premarket going into Friday.  The area to watch is the rising trendline pointing to 2225 right now.  The futures should continue sideways until that line rises enough to meet the price level.  By then the short term (overbought) charts should reset enough to turn back up and rally from that rising trendline hit.  For the bears you'd want to see that line get broken today, as if it did then we should retest the 2200-2210 support zone.  Naturally at this point the "cup and handle" pattern spoken of yesterday and the day before has played out and the odds of pullback to the 2185 area have pretty much vanished for now.

On another note, as I'm sure you've seen the news by now... the ECB surprised the market by "tapering" its' massive bond-buying program from next April and the Fed's are hinting that they won't raise rates with next weeks' meeting on the 14th.  Crazy indeed as rates needed to be raised badly.  But I guess they want to goose the market to even higher levels so the crash that follows will be even bigger.  We all know it's coming... the question is when?

ES Morning Update December 7th 2016

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Once again... not much going on in the market, just more chop.  Today is "Pearl Harbor Day" and my grandfather's birthday.  If he were still alive (he died in 2005) he would have been 101 years old.  Pretty amazing to think he was born in 1915 and went through the great depression as a young teenager.  I remember him telling me that his first house cost him $800 and that it was just some beat up all shack out in the country.  It had no running water or electricity if I recall correctly.  Times must have been extremely hard back then... I can't imagine.  Today we live a lazy life addicted to the internet and a thousand television channels.  Sometimes I wish for the simpler life, but I don't want to give up all these modern conveniences.

Anyway, the market looks again like it's just waiting for some news to make its' next move.  That news is likely the ECB meeting on Thursday (for this week) and the FOMC meeting next Wednesday.  Seasonality wise we should start pulling back into mid-December and rally back up during the Santa rally (which starts the first trading day after Christmas).  But nothing about this year is normal and thinking it will follow past patterns just probably something we shouldn't do.  Many things seem reversed or delayed this year so possibly the opposite happens and we go into mid-December with a high instead of a low?  That basically next week around the FOMC meeting, where we could then drop into the last half of December before Santa rescues us.

The bottom line is simple... the market is clearly just in chop mode until some news event moves it.  Tomorrow will be the chance to see some reaction from the ECB news and then next Wednesday.  Many others are calling for 2240 area before a top and drop.  That's possible I'm sure but if it happens on as slow grind up then it's not likely the top.  We need to see some fast squeeze up to that level on some news and then it could top and drop.  If the ECB doesn't do it tomorrow then maybe the FOMC does next week?  On the short term though a retest of the 2185 zone could (should) happen before this week ends.  It's not a trade I'd take though as we all know how well the bulls seem to hold a level and not give it up until they are completely exhausted and then we wake up to another mini-crash... LOL!

ES Morning Update December 6th 2016

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Not much to add as the low volume choppy continues.  Clearly the market wants to go higher but it's yet to make another higher high.  It has the "pattern" setup in the bulls' favor as we can now see a nice "cup and handle" showing.  If the pattern works the futures should add about 20 more points on the current 2205 area, or about 2225.  If the pattern fails then we should see a C wave down happen, that again should take us to the 2160 area.

The market is clearly trying to hold its' gains and not pullback like it should.  We are all used too this manipulation now so it's not any surprise to me.  However, we also know that everyone is a bull now calling for DOW 20,000 and SPX 2300... which tells me the bull bus is too full.   While it could rally up to those levels at some point in the futures I just don't see it starting this week.  I still see another pullback with the 2160 area being the first support zone, and most likely area to stop at.  But, it looks like it's too early in the week for this to happen.

If this move does appear it should show up on Thursday or Friday of this week.  We have the ECB meeting this Thursday where they decide on how their monetary policy just like our Fed's do on FOMC days.  That could be day we see some shakeout drop, or scream higher?  All in all we are just chopping sideways in a range similar to many other periods in the past before some big drop appears out of nowhere.  Any big drop probably won't happen until next year in January.  This month we should see some type of pullback before the FOMC meeting next Wednesday the 14th, but again it might not be much on the downside.

I'd be more worried if the opposite happened and instead the market rallied up into the FOMC meeting with some new higher high as that would be bearish for the rest of the month I think.  Anyway, predicting the future that far out is too hard with all the manipulation.  So let's just stick with today, which I think will not make another 10-15 point move higher but instead just chop sideways or drop a few points.  I don't see and big drop unfortunately, just another day with no clear direction.

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