Saturday, September 26, 2026
Home Blog Page 59

ES Morning Update August 3rd 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update August 3rd 2017

The market finally broke-down yesterday losing the red rising trendline of support.  Of course it rallied back hard as the bulls never seems to give up, but most bears now days expect that and take profits quickly and go back to sidelines to see what happens next.  Since I had that FP on the SPY showing 246.72 I exited my short once it hit.  It bounced and then went lower before the rally started to erase almost the entire move down, but that's to be expected when carving out a top.  There should be many more quick drops and fast recovery's before this ship really turns down south for a nice correction, but that's how works and there's nothing we can do about it but expect it and trade accordingly.

Anyway, this morning you can see the futures are trapped below the blue falling trendline of resistance.  The market actually came within a hair of hitting the line going into the close yesterday, then dropped afterhours and now it's back up there again.  I drew in a new light black rising trendline connecting yesterday's low with that afterhours/premarket low and you'll see a new triangle now formed.  There's also a case to support yesterday's low making a "head", then the afterhours/premarket low making the "right shoulder", with the "left shoulder" being the low on 8/1 that came back down to touch the red rising trendline.  This suggests another move up could happen with a breakout through the falling blue trendline of resistance.  My thoughts are that we'll chop around today inside that triangle and then we'll see the breakout to the upside for that "Head and Shoulder's Pattern" tomorrow... or we'll see a breakdown that takes us down to the 2450 area and below.

It's too early right now to guess but maybe we'll get some clues by the close today?  It's really a 50/50 guess at this point as the bearish count suggests we are a C wave down that started yesterday with the break of the red rising trendline and the bounce back up was just that C wave down dividing into more waves.  Most C waves are 5 wave patterns and we could have seen the wave 1 down yesterday and are in the wave 2 up right now.  It could also subdivide into some kind of small ABC pattern to complete the wave 2 up.  If accurate then the wave 3 down inside the C down should be a nice drop, and we should see it tomorrow or later today.  If wrong on the wave count then we'll have to give the ball back to the bulls and let them play-out their H&S Pattern, which would add about 10 points onto the 2474 area where it should breakthrough the blue falling trendline.  That would mean a new high of 2484 or so, and it would certainly scare out a lot of bears.  If the market wasn't manipulated so hard against bearish setups I'd put the odds in favor of the wave 3 down of a C down, but with the Fed's always sticking their funny money in the market I'm sticking with 50/50 odds on a breakout for the H&S Pattern or breakdown with the wave count.  For today though I fully expect it to dance in the triangle until the close and keep both bears and bulls guessing.

ES Morning Update August 2nd 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update August 2nd 2017

Not much more to add that hasn't already been said.  The futures still look too me like they are in a B wave up from the A wave down low last Thursday around 2457, and this whole ABC pattern is either a wave 4 down with some wave 5 up yet to come... which would take us to new highs, or the high is already in and we are starting the next series of waves down.  Either wave a C wave down (which should hit the 2450 area of support) should be coming soon.  That red rising trendline has be saving the bulls all week but is should break soon.  We know the market is weak as Apple gained $10 afterhours from good earnings and the futures are barely up at all.  If this market was a strong one we'd have seen a bigger move up reflected in the futures of the S&P500 and Nasdaq for sure.  So while I'm expecting some more follow through on the upside for the futures today I'm not expecting much.

Afterhours in the DOW I saw a "possible" FP of 22,025 show up.  I say it's possible fake print as it could have been a reaction to Apple and therefore be a real print.  We know the bulls want to hit that magical 22,000 level so today would be a great day for them to do it.  Anyway, I still think it's a good idea to average into shorts here as the risk/reward of a big move up versus big move down seems heavily in favor of the bears here.  While I don't know if there's still going to be another new all time I do think there will be a pullback first... which could turn into a lot more and even mark the all time high already.  We just won't know until it first gets started moving down.  We could still get a little high and closer to 2500, like maybe 2485 I guess?  But again, the reward of the move down is greater then the risk of a huge move up in my view.

The American Empire and its Media

Red
-
0
The American Empire and its Media

Largely unbeknownst to the general public, many media executives and top journalists of almost all major U.S. news outlets, political and business magazines, public broadcasters and press agencies have long been members of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Established in 1921 as a private, bipartisan organization to “awaken America to its worldwide responsibilities”, the CFR and its close to 5000 elite members have for decades shaped U.S. foreign policy and public discourse about it. As one Council member famously explained, the goal has indeed been to establish an “empire”, albeit a “benevolent” one.

Based on official membership rosters, the following illustration for the first time depicts the extensive media network of the CFR and its two main international affiliate organizations: the Bilderberg Group (covering the U.S. and Europe) and the Trilateral Commission (covering North America, Europe and East Asia), both established by Council leaders to foster elite cooperation at the international level.cfr-media-network-hdb-spr.png (3781×2700)

In a column entitled “Ruling Class Journalists”, former Washington Post senior editor and ombudsman Richard Harwood once described the Council and its members approvingly as “the nearest thing we have to a ruling establishment in the United States”.

Harwood continued: “The membership of these journalists in the Council, however they may think of themselves, is an acknowledgment of their active and important role in public affairs and of their ascension into the American ruling class. They do not merely analyze and interpret foreign policy for the United States; they help make it. () They are part of that establishment whether they like it or not, sharing most of its values and world views.”

However, media personalities constitute only about five percent of the comprehensive CFR network. As the following illustration shows, key members of the private Council on Foreign Relations have included:

  • several U.S. Presidents and Vice Presidents of both parties;
  • almost all Secretaries of State, Defense, and the Treasury;
  • many high-ranking commanders of the U.S. military and NATO;
  • almost all National Security Advisors, CIA Directors, Ambassadors to the U.N., Chairs of the Federal Reserve, Presidents of the World Bank, and Directors of the National Economic Council;
  • some of the most influential Members of Congress (notably in foreign & security policy matters);
  • many top jounalists, media executives, and entertainment industry directors;
  • many prominent academics, especially in key fields such as Economics, International Relations, Political Science, History and Journalism;
  • many top executives of Wall Street, policy think tanks, universities, and NGOs;
  • as well as the key members of both the 9/11 Commission and the Warren Commission (JFK)

Eminent economist and Kennedy supporter, John K. Galbraith, confirmed the Council’s influence: “Those of us who had worked for the Kennedy election were tolerated in the government for that reason and had a say, but foreign policy was still with the Council on Foreign Relations people.”

And no less than John J. McCloy, the longtime chairman of the Council and advisor to nine U.S. presidents, told the New York Times about his time in Washington: “Whenever we needed a man we thumbed through the roll of the Council members and put through a call to New York.”cfr-american-empire-hdf-spr.png (5244×4054)

German news magazine Der Spiegel once described the CFR as the “most influential private institution of the United States and the Western world“ and a “politburo of capitalism”. Both the Roman-inspired logo of the Council (top right in the illustration above) as well as its slogan (ubique – omnipresent) appear to emphasize that ambition.

In his famous article about “The American Establishment”, political columnist Richard H. Rovere noted: “The directors of the CFR make up a sort of Presidium for that part of the Establishment that guides our destiny as a nation. () [I]t rarely fails to get one of its members, or at least one of its allies, into the White House. In fact, it generally is able to see to it that both nominees are men acceptable to it.”

Until recently, this assessment had indeed been justified. Thus, in 1993 former CFR director George H.W. Bush was followed by CFR member Bill Clinton, who in turn was followed by CFR “family member” George W. Bush. In 2008, CFR member John McCain lost against CFR candidate of choice, Barack Obama, who received the names of his entire Cabinet already one month prior to his election by CFR Senior Fellow (and Citigroup banker) Michael Froman. Froman later negotiated the TTP and TTIP free trade agreements, before returning to the CFR as a Distinguished Fellow.

It was not until the 2016 election that the Council couldn’t, apparently, prevail. At any rate, not yet.

References:

  1. Council on Foreign Relations:
  2. Bilderberg conference: participant lists 1954 to 2014 and 2015-2017
  3. Trilateral Commission: membership lists of 1973; 1978; 1985; 1995; 2010; and 2017
  4. Laurence H. Shoup (2015): Wall Street’s Think Tank: The Council on Foreign Relations and the Empire of Neoliberal Geopolitics, 1976-2014, Monthly Review Press
  5. Wikipedia pages about the CFR, the Bilderberg Group, and the Trilateral Commission

About the authors

Swiss Propaganda Research is an independent, academic research group focusing on geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media. You can contact us here.

ES Morning Update August 1st 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update August 1st 2017

Yesterday into the close I posted a chart on the SPY in the chatroom that showed a smaller and larger triangle.  It rallied up to hit the top trendline of the smaller triangle the last thirty minutes of the day (around 247.20) and the last ten minutes we saw it fall back down to 246.77 to close below the lower part of that triangle.  I was just about to take a short thinking we were going to close near the top and missed it.  Now I'm glad I did as that too me was a classic move by SkyNet to lure in bears at the last minute and then turn back up after hours on the futures... which they did.  Now we have the larger triangle in play which points to around 247.75 on the SPY, and that around 2477 or so on the futures.  Guess where we are... within a hair of that target.

My thoughts on this are simple... it's a short.  We are so close to that 2500 level that everyone is now assuming it's "a given", and that's exactly when they pull the rug out from them.  Can it make a new high today?  Of course it can, but again I don't think it will be by much.  I don't see 2500 being hit but instead just getting up to within 10-15 points it and rolling over.  Since the prior high was 2480 we could pop through it a little and hit 2485 or but we could also just as easily stop under 2480 and just put in a lower high today, and that would suggest this is just a small B wave rally up with the A wave down ending at the 2457 low from last Thursday.  That leaves a C wave down to break that low (probably will find support in the 2450 area) and end this ABC move.

The other wave count would be a slightly higher high today, which then suggests last Thursdays move down was a wave 4 and we are in the wave 5 up today.  Once that ends then we should still start a move down (an ABC or 5 wave pattern?) that again should be testing the 2450 area at some point in the near future.  Put simply this is the perfect bull setup as a move down is very likely to start today or tomorrow... and that's only if they can hold it up all day today.  It's feat they are good at, so don't be surprised if it "holds the line" into the close and drops afterhours and into tomorrow.  I think it's 50/50 on dropping at the open or holding until the close but a pullback is coming very soon.  A touch of DOW 22,000 is probably another reason they are holding the market up.  So if we see that level hit then maybe we'll get the pullback started.

ES Morning Update July 31st 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 31st 2017

Another month is almost here as we leave July today and enter August tomorrow.  We all know that mid-to-late August is a rough time for the bulls, so if they want to overtake 2500 they had better do it soon.  While only the insiders that control the market know when it will top out, and what level, but we do have some hope in timing it as we have past history patterns.  One important one is the "even number" play, where the market will get close to some big even number target (like 2500 in this example) but fall short.  Or it will pierce through it to wipe out the bears and lure in the bulls and then reverse back down.  Usually, I've noticed that when it fails it will get within 10-15 points and when it pierces it will go 15-20 points over it.  Right now we are very close to the "fail zone" so this week will be critical for the bulls I think.

From the looks of the various charts I think a whole week is need to work off the overbought conditions on the medium term.  The 60 minute chart (short term) is also becoming overbought but the 6 hour chart is neutral to oversold and hooking back up.  So we should see this rally up this morning hold and/or continue the rest of today at least.  But afterhours I'm guessing we'll see the 6 hour chart become overbought again that could lead to another move down starting on Tuesday.

Overall though if the bulls can just hold themselves in a trading range all week and not breakdown below prior support in the 2450 area they could reset the medium term charts enough to make another run at 2500 next week (possibly late this week?).  But it's not going to be easy for the bulls, as "holding the line" is going to be harder once momentum on the downside kicks it.  However, another move up seems likely as I currently do not see a good negative divergence setup on the MACD's of the daily chart of the SPX Index.  So while it appears to be rolling over on it's MACD's and it's Histogram bars are getting smaller and smaller, approach the zero line, that chart still tells me there will be another move back up after a pullback of some degree first.  It's just up to the bulls to keep that pullback to a minimum.

From an Elloittwave stand point it still looks like we had a wave 4 down start last Thursday from the 2480 high, and that while it could have ended as a one move wave pattern it's looking more likely that it's going to be a three wave pattern, aka... an ABC to complete the wave 4 down.  Currently (this morning) we appear to be in the B wave up part, which leaves the C wave down for Tuesday or maybe Wednesday. This all assumes we don't breakout through that 2480 prior high and make a run for 2500 as then the wave 4 down would have likely ended with the 2457 low.  And that would of course mean that we would have started the 5th wave up, but my gut tells me we have another wave down yet to come (the C wave of the wave 4 down) before we run up hard again for that 5th wave.

Now how high can it go you ask?  I wish I knew but I don't.  Obviously the next "even number" play is 2600 and then 2700, and while it's hard too believe they could get that high we still have a strong looking up trend on the monthly chart as I discussed in one of my morning updates last week.  Naturally it doesn't mean we couldn't experience some nice correction first, or even another flash crash, but once finished the market "could" still go higher... at least from a technical point of view.  With no negative divergence yet and no move under the various moving averages the market is still in an uptrend until proven otherwise.  I'll still be looking to short it when I see nice bearish setups (like C waves down) and will always be cautious on going long when so over extended, but I'm not getting stupidly bearish until I see some negative divergences and other bearish pattern setup.  For today... possible short into Tuesday by the close should the bulls not bust through the 2480 high.

Goldman wins patent for its own cryptocoin technology..what could go wrong?

Red
-
0
Goldman wins patent for its own cryptocoin technology..what could go wrong?

Goldman Sachs has clinched an important victory in its race to transition from a stodgy investment bank into a fintech powerhouse: it was awarded a patent for its proposed "SETLcoin" cryptocurrency settlement system, according to CoinDesk, the first to report on the patent.

“The US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) published Goldman's patent on July 11, entitled "Cryptographic currency for securities settlement". The bank made headlines when the existence of the patent application was revealed in late 2015.”

The concept envisions a system for settling securities trades using cryptocurrency instead of cash or other cash equivalents. When filed in December of 2015, the application notably outlined methods for exchanging SETLcoins for digitized stocks for firms like Google and Microsoft, as well as cryptocurrencies, naming bitcoin and litecoin in particular, as CoinDesk explains.

In its patent application, Goldman highlights the shortcomings of the clearing and settlement system, explaining how counterparties are forced to bear unnecessary risk during the period between when a trade is made and when it is settled, which can be up to three days for stock trades.

“The settlement of securities involves a process whereby securities or interests in securities (e.g., debt, equity, or derivative contracts) are delivered, usually against payment of money. A number of risks arise for the parties during the settlement interval that follows trading and precedes settlement. For example, after a trade for a security and before settlement, the rights of the purchaser are contractual and therefore personal; however, because such rights are merely personal, these rights are at risk in the event of the insolvency of the either counterparty to the trade. After settlement, the purchaser owns the securities, and the purchaser` rights are proprietary. Clearing involves modifying contractual obligations to facilitate settlement. Clearing houses, such as the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC), provide clearing, settlement, risk management, central counterparty services, and a guarantee of completion for certain transactions (e.g., broker-to-broker trades, depositary receipts, and exchange-traded funds), and they serve as the central counterparty for trades in the U.S. securities markets. In the United States, the settlement date for marketable stocks can be an extended length of time--three business days after the trade is executed and for listed options and government securities it is usually one day after the execution.”

Then Goldman describes how cryptocurrencies like bitcoin work.

“A cryptographic currency is a digital medium of exchange that enables distributed, rapid, cryptographically secure, confirmed transactions for goods and/or services. One of the first cryptographic currencies to come to broad attention was Bitcoin, which is based on a peer-to-peer network, in 2009. Since then, numerous cryptographic currencies have become available, such as Litecoin, Novacoin, Namecoin, Feathercoin, Terracoin, Dogecoin, and Peercoin. Fundamentally, cryptographic currencies are specifications regarding the use of currency that seek to incorporate principles of cryptography (e.g., public-key cryptography) to implement a distributed and decentralized information economy. A digital currency, e.g., a bitcoin used in Bitcoin, is computationally brought into existence by an issuer (e.g., a bitcoin is "mined"). Digital currency can be stored in a virtual cryptographic wallet, (hereinafter "wallet"), i.e., a software and/or hardware technology to store cryptographic keys and cryptographic currency. Digital currency can be purchased (e.g., for U.S. dollars at an ATM or at an exchange), sold (e.g., for goods and/or services), traded, or exchanged for a different currency or cryptographic currency, for example. A sender makes a payment (or otherwise transfers ownership) of digital currency by broadcasting (e.g., in packets or other data structures) a transaction message to nodes on a peer-to-peer network. The transaction message includes the quantity of virtual currency changing ownership (e.g., 4 bitcoins) and the receiver's (i.e., the new owner's) public key-based address. Transaction messages are sent through the Internet, without the need to trust a third party, so settlements are extremely timely and efficient.”

...before providing a detailed description of how its SETLCoin system works, along with a summary of its most important innovation: the reduction in settlement times.

“The described technology concerns one or more methods, systems, apparatuses, and mediums storing processor-executable process steps to substantively instantly settle securities, based on cryptographic currency technology, without the risks associated with traditional settlement technologies.”

To be sure, Goldman knows what it is doing: a recent chart showing the blockchain ecosystem confirms that it is ripe for a major bank stepping in and profiting from the numerous "externalities":

According to Goldman, SETLCoin is a cryptocurrency that can be exchanged for financial securities over a peer-to-peer network, allowing trades to settle instantly because transfer of the SETLCoin is instant. Here’s how it will work:

“…SETLcoin wallet holds multiple positionable items (e.g., a security item, such as a share), herein referred to as a Positional Item inside Cryptographic currency (PIC), and a position (i.e., a quantity of the PIC represented by an SETLcoin wallet). A PIC is an agreed upon reference used by the peer-to-peer network to refer to, e.g., a particular security. For example, "IBM" (the stock market symbol of the company by the same name) can also be a PIC used by the peer-to-peer network to refer to IBM stock. A PIC, in some embodiments, is determined (and invalidated) by an issuer. An issuer (e.g., a company, underwriter, municipality, government, etc.) can have multiple PICS to represent different types of securities. For example, IBM stocks can be represented by PIC "IBM-S" and IBM bonds by PIC "IBM-B". In some embodiments, PICS are issued (and destroyed) by highly authoritative entities. For example, dollars available on the SETLcoin network represented by, e.g., PIC "USD" may be authoritatively issued by, for example, the U.S. Treasury. However, the described technology can issue PICS based on various other techniques (e.g., network node agreement, exchange regulation, lease or purchase, auction, etc.) and can be named based on, e.g., a company's name, its market symbol, its branding, its security name, availability, or a preferred format (e.g., length, abbreviation, etc.).

An SETLcoin wallet or transaction can house a single security, as described above, or multiple denominations of the same security (e.g., 1 IBM-S SETLcoin valued at 100 IBM shares). SETLcoin wallets or transactions may also house multiple securities (e.g., 1 IBM-S SETLcoin and 2 GOOG-S SETLcoins). SETLcoins are exchangeable for, e.g., other SETLcoins and/or other cryptographic currencies (e.g., peercoins). For example, a single IBM-S SETLcoin may be exchangeable for one or more "GOOG" SETLcoins (i.e., Google shares), for 13,000 USD SETLcoins, 100 litecoins, and/or for 5 bitcoins.”

It is unclear if and how Goldman's foray into blockchain will impact prices of existing tokens. You can read the whole patent here.

Lest we not forget that this "new world currency" was foretold back in 1988 on the cover of "The Economist" magazine.

Do you every wonder how that cover with that coin looks so similar to BitCoin today?  I mean, how could anyone have thought about "mining coins" when there wasn't even an internet back then?

It's so bizarre to think about and scary to look at that coin and how accurate it looks that you'll have to think someone planned it many, many years ago (or had a time machine... LOL).  So, tell me how you are going to get people to accept this new currency?  I'd have to say that the only way possible is to crash the stock market so hard that people will be begging for help from the government in any form of money they will give them... and of course 2018 is just around the corner now.

So, if I were "them" I'd start with a stock market crash this year... as in October of 2017 or so.  Then I'd carry it into all of 2018 so that by the time the year ended we'd see half or more of the market erased.  A scare like that would make so many innocent people lose most or all of their 401k money that they would accept this new digital money.

Remember that the government has already got a system of money in placed called SDR's (Special Drawing Rights) that is supposed to be backed up with a basket of currencies.  Now I don't know if that will be the new money  or not, but certainly we are going to become a lot more digital after 2018.

It's always been my belief that "they" (as in the rulers of the world... the elite) let BitCoin (and other Crypto-currencies) get started and accepted by the public as they wanted everyone to get used to a digital system of money.  In fact it wouldn't surprise me if "they" didn't fund the creation of it and trick the public into thinking they were safer to stop using the US Dollar and go to BitCoin.

It's the biggest trick of all... tell everyone that hates the elite and what they've done to make the dollar almost worthless (in buying power) that there is a way to bypass "them" by switching to a new digital currency called "BitCoin".  They even let the stock price soar to record highs.  Then when everyone is "ok" with digital money they create their own through one of their satan run banks... aka, Goldman Sachs (GS).

Next would be to start taxing all other digital money except the GS Coins so that people will abandon BitCoin for their new money.  It's coming folks... and it's been a multi-decade plan by "them" that so far is playing out just like they expected.

Red.

ES Morning Update July 28th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 28th 2017

Finally... we got a nice move down.  Of course it took most everyone by surprise (including me), but it was way overdue and much needed.  Now we can look at this 60 minute chart of the ES Futures and see how nicely the rising red trendline held the market on the move down yesterday and is still supporting the market this morning.  I discussed yesterday in the free chatroom that this move down looked like it might be a wave 4 of some degree and that we might still have a wave 5 up yet to come... which should end this rally on a bigger scale and allow for a 2-3 correction/crash.  I still think that is the case and I think we'll have the best odds of that 5th wave ending on Monday or Tuesday of next week.  Now whether it makes a new all time high again or becomes a "failed fifth"... meaning a lower high, I don't know.  Considering how long this move up has been going on I'd have to think they will "eke" out a new all high, even if it's just by a few points.

My thoughts for today are that we'll ride this red rising trendline of support all day with some attempts at a rally but I don't see the new all time high today.  Most likely the bulls will get stop at the bounce high area yesterday, which was about 2473 or so.  I do think they will get past that level but today looks a lot more like a rangebound day, riding the trendline higher but not making too much headway on the upside.  If we are indeed in a small 5th wave up from yesterday's low then it too could breakdown into 5 tiny waves of its' own.  And that would suggest the first tiny wave 1 up happened from the 2457 low yesterday and ended at the 2473 high.  Then the afterhours drop is the tiny wave 2 down, and it's trying to reset the short term charts so the tiny wave 3 up can start.  I just don't think that "tiny wave 3" will start today.  Kinda a gut feeling based on past times that I've watched Friday's do a whole lot of nothing after a nice move down on Thursday happen.  Anyway, I'll keep today's update short and end it with wishing you a fun weekend as I suspect the fireworks will start next week.

ES Morning Update July 27th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 27th 2017

Man, this market is really running on fume!  Correction... it's out of fuel and just gliding!  Various charts I look at, from the SPX Cash Index to the ES Futures (in different time frames), all signal the same thing... "ready to drop".  The futures are up a little this morning but I'd really be shocked if today closes positive.  Everything points to a move down today, but I guess that's hard too "make happen" if sellers don't show up and hit the sell button.  We are certainly up in "nose bleed" altitude right now.  I'd think there would be some selling as the big funds shuffle positions around the last 3 days of the month, but so far there's been nothing.

However, we all know the game the Fed's play these days... which is that they hold the market in place for several days after the FOMC meeting as they don't want blamed for any market turn from what they said.  But a few days later the market can turn and the media blames it on something else.  So maybe the Fed's hold this pig up until Friday, I just don't know?  But it's very bearish looking today and I just think that with every day that goes by they are setting the market up for a bigger fall.

Maybe it's the SPX daily chart as that's the only one I can find that isn't bearish yet but instead just now peaking and trying to roll the MACD's over.  On it we have a MACD at 11.5 and one at 9.3, and the gap between them has been much wider then take... meaning the higher one is losing steam and curling over.  On that chart we could see another 2-3 days of chop before the upper MACD crosses over the lower one and gives us the bearish cross.  Of course this could happen all in one day if there's a surprise move down of 20 or more points.

The weekly chart is still up in the clouds and very overbought hanging around +30 or so.  The peak on it was back in early March of this year with a +46 and +39, but that all changed by late March as they crossed over and gave us the bearish cross that's been swinging back and forth ever since then.  The monthly chart is still pointing up strongly with no signs of a cross yet, or even a turn back down.  But both the weekly and monthly charts are too long a time frame to forecast the future.  By the time they turn down the move will have already happened.  Nevertheless, they are worth looking at from time to time so we can get the big picture... and it tells me that we are overdue for a correction on the weekly and daily but still in bullish mode long term.  That's at least until we see the depth of the correction.

The month chart is again "not something" you can use to forecast the future.  Once a bearish cross is made on its' MACD's that seems to be all she wrote for the high as it's not revisited with a higher high until many years later.  For example, in August of 1999 the monthly MACD's made a bearish cross, but the high in the market didn't come until March of 2000.  All this time the MACD stayed bearish with a couple of attempts to get back to positive but look about equal in their levels as opposed to a real bullish cross.  That tells me it's "possible" that we could have a small pullback (like in July to September of 1999... percentage wise I mean) and make the bearish cross, but continue high into early 2018 before topping.  But there was no point at which the MACD's turned back bullish until the crash was over with in late 2002.

Now when we look at the bearish cross on October of 2007 we see that the top was also put in as well at the same time.  Then the bearish cross again did not turn bullish until after the crash end and the market turned back up strongly (June of 2009).  This tells me that whenever we finally get a bearish cross on the monthly MACD's there's strong odds that a top is either already put in or will be so within 6 months of the turn, and that we've entered the next bear market.  All of this information suggest too me that we are ready for a correction to start but 50/50 on whether we've entered a bear market.  We'll have to see the depth of the correction and what it does to the month MACD's.  If they cross then we know the bull market is likely ended or within 6 months of ending.  For today though, I'm guessing it's going to be another "keep your fingers and toes in the damn holes Janet" day... meaning the Fed's don't look ready to let this correction start yet.  Maybe tomorrow, but my bet is next week it starts.  Inching into some shorts here today and over the next several days might be a good idea.

American company microchips employees with device the size of a grain of rice

Red
-
0
American company microchips employees with device the size of a grain of rice

American company microchips employees with device the size of a grain of rice

A US company is microchipping its employees to enable them more convenient access to workplace amenities.

The Wisconsin company -  Three Square Market – designs software for break room markets that are commonly found in office complexes.

Now ABC News reports just as people can purchase items at the market using phones, Three Square Market wants to do the same using a microchip implanted inside a person’s hand.

Todd Westby, Three Square Market CEO, said: "It's the next thing that's inevitably going to happen, and we want to be a part of it.”

More than 50 employees have volunteered to have the devices implanted with a chip that is about the size of a single grain of rice.

Along with purchasing market kiosk items, employees will be able to use the chip to enter the building via the front door and log onto their computers.

The chip – which costs $300 and is currently being paid for by the company – is implanted between a person’s thumb and forefinger.

Westby assured ABC News the chip does not use GPS tracking and the data is both encrypted and secure.

No one who works at Three Square Market is required to get the chip implant.

ES Morning Update July 26th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 26th 2017

Still grinding higher a little each day it seems.  Today is the FOMC day so we might see some action after the minutes but lately the Fed days aren't much to write home about.  Everything they say is already expected to be said and everyone knows it.  So unless they say something no one is expecting it might be another boring day.  I'm still looking for a little higher though, like within 10-15 points of 2500 (or 15-20 over 2500... but not 2500 on the nose).  As far as charts go, we are overbought and have negative divergences everywhere.  But that doesn't matter when the market is waiting on news I guess.

My thoughts are that we'll continue this action until Friday where we could see the last important top before a correction starts.  Meaning that we could top today, drop small on Thursday and back up on Friday for a double top, lower high or maybe even a higher high... but next week I think we'll see some action start on the downside.  Of course it will be choppy but the moves down and back up should be larger.  This 5-10 point daily moves should be replaced with 20+ point days, both down and up as both bulls and bears get shaken.  We should test the 2450 area on the down move and then bounce some, but a move down is coming... and soon.  For today I'm just watching to see if the bulls can get an exhaustion move up where I can short it.  Maybe that will happen on Friday after a pullback tomorrow of 20 or more points?  Don't know but we are close to a top and I'm a patient bear.

ES Morning Update July 25th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 25th 2017

Nice turn back up afterhours and premarket.  We knew it was coming from the look of the 6 hour MACD, but I kinda wasn't expecting it until Wednesday around 2pm from some FOMC announcement.  Now I'm beginning to wonder if we don't top out on Wednesday as this clearly looks like a 5th wave up.  Maybe there's one more push higher after something positive the Fed's say?  I don't know for sure?  But this market is setting up for a pullback very soon.   There's not only the wave count but there's negative divergences setting up too.  Then there's the month of August which known to be a bull killer... especially the 2nd half of it.  All in all the odds favor a correction coming very soon, and I'm thinking it could start as soon as the FOMC meeting is over with.  Anyway, not much more to add this mornings update so I'll end now and keep it short.

ES Morning Update July 24th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 24th 2017

Good Monday morning everyone.  The 60 minute chart here of the ES Futures is looking oversold and acting like it wants to go up.  The 6 hour chart (not shown) is starting to form a nice hook back up on its' MACD's too, so another move higher is likely still in play.  But, we have another FOMC meeting this week so we will probably see some choppy action until 2pm Wednesday when the minutes are released.  Overall though the pullback we've had looks like a wave 4 (starting from the 7/6 low of 2405), which might drift a little lower until Wednesday.  I'm not expecting anything big of course as odd favor it to be another "wait and see" Monday-Wednesday until the FOMC meeting is over with.  It's crazy how dependent the market has become on the words spoken by the Fed's but it's just how things work in this new trading era I guess.

My thoughts for today... a whole lot of nothing.  If this 60 minute chart can get turned back up I still don't think it has the strength today to take out the current all time high.  If we drop then the 2455-2460 area should hold the bears in place as it's great support on a low volume day, which is what I expect again to happen just like all the recent days over the last several months.  It's really crazy and scary when you think about how low the volume has fell over the last year or so.  For the SPY we used too consider 70-80 million shares traded an extreme low, but now they commonly go under 50 million shares.  There's very few humans trading I guess as it appears to be robot's versus robot's (rock'em sock'em robot's... LOL).  I read a statistic over a year ago that said 84% of all trading is just bot's.  Pretty scary as they take the human fact out of the picture and will just sell, sell, sell, as they are programmed to do... if and "when" the crap hits the fan.  Anyway, I's just relax today I don't see much going on.

ES Morning Update July 21st 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 21st 2017

A whole lot of nothing yesterday, at least by the close.  There was a slight pullback in the morning but it got bought up by the close.  Today is the monthly options expiration so we could see a little more movement as the market makers will want to pin the SPY where it hurts the most... which I believe is lower this time around.  Just looking at the SPY chart there's a lot of sideways chop in the 245.50 area, so that could be the best pin spot.  On the futures that would be around 2455 I think.

Looking at this futures chart you'll see I moved the rising blue trendline over from where it previously was (and was broken) to the current position where it has three touches of support.  This morning we see that it's piercing through it a little and down a few points.  It looks to me like a backtest of the low from yesterday is plan for the day.  But if yesterdays move down to that low was just some kind of small A wave, and the move up into the close was a small B wave, then today's move down should be a small C wave... which should go lower then yesterdays low.  And if so, then the target that would make sense is the 2455 area where there's prior sideways movement (support).  If that breaks then the 2445 area would be the next support zone.  But I don't think they will drop that much on a Friday, or if they do they won't close it that low.

This whole ABC down from yesterday is probably some wave 4 pullback that leaves a wave 5 up yet to come.  This wave 5 up should start Monday and might also breakdown into 5 smaller waves.  I think it's target will be the 2500 level, but I don't think it will make it there.  I think we'll get within 10-15 points of it and that's all she wrote for the bulls.  Anyway, for today I'm looking for a move down to pin the SPY where it makes the most options expire worthless.  My guess is that's it's between 245.50 and 246.50, which isnt' much to go on but a good day trader could play it.  Have a good weekend everyone and thanks again for all the great comments from everyone in the chatroom.

Last week the Fed raised the white flag on further rate hikes. There won’t be any for the foreseeable future.

Red
-
0
Last week the Fed raised the white flag on further rate hikes. There won’t be any for the foreseeable future.

No rate hikes are coming at the July, September or November Fed FOMC meetings. The earliest rate hike might be at the December 13, 2017 FOMC meeting, but even that has a less than 50% probability as of today. I’ll update those probabilities using my proprietary models in the weeks and months ahead.

The white flag of surrender came in two public comments by two of the only four FOMC members whose opinions really count. The four voting members of the FOMC worth listening to are Janet Yellen, Stan Fischer, Bill Dudley and Lael Brainard.

Yellen and Brainard made public remarks last week. Yellen’s testimony before Congress received the usual saturation coverage. Brainard’s remarks to an academic conference at Columbia University received far less coverage, but were perhaps far more important in terms of the impact of Fed policy on markets including gold.

These comments by the two FOMC members should be put in the context of my model forecast for Fed behavior. I expect the Fed to raise rates 0.25% at FOMC meetings every March, June, September and December from now until mid-2019 until the Fed’s policy rate reaches a “normalized” level of 3.25%.

However, the Fed will “pause” in these rate hikes when if seek weak job creation (below 75,000 jobs per month), persistent disinflation, or a disorderly stock market decline of more than 5%. Absent those pause factors, the Fed is on auto-pilot to raise rates.

The Fed will also reduce its balance sheet starting this September at a level of $10 billion per month, ramping up to $50 billion per month, until the balance sheet is “normalized” at about $2.5 trillion (down from over $4 trillion today).

The balance sheet reduction is intended to “run on background” and will not be dialed-up or dialed-down as a policy tool. Balance sheet normalization is a “set it, and forget it” tool that will not be subject to the pause factors.

That’s the baseline for normalization. Now for the exceptions. If I am forecasting no rate hike in September, which pause factor applies?

The answer is disinflation. The Fed’s preferred metric for inflation is the Core PCE price deflator year-over-year. The Fed’s goal for this metric is 2%.

Here’s the actual data:

February 1.8%

March 1.6%

April 1.5%

May 1.4%

The June data has not yet been released. However, June data was released for a similar measure, which is Core PPI year-over-year. That measure was 2.1% in May and 2.0% in June.

Taken together, this data shows that disinflation is strong, the Fed is moving further away from its goals, and the trend is not transitory. That’s what Yellen publicly acknowledged on July 13, and that’s why she threw in the towel on a September rate hike.

Brainard’s July 11 speech was much more technical than Yellen’s testimony and more interesting. She made it clear she would not vote for a rate hike in September. Brainard said much the same thing in an earlier speech on May 30, 2017 in New York, but the July 11 speech put the last nail in the coffin of a rate hike.

But, the July 11 speech spent far more time on the difference between rate hikes and balance sheet reduction as forms of normalization. Brainard recognized that both forms of normalization constitute monetary tightening and have the potential to make the dollar stronger, weaken other currencies, and create international “spillover” effects including capital outflows and market crashes in our trading partners and emerging markets.

These kind of spillovers were seen in May 2013 (the taper tantrum), August 2015 (the China shock devaluation and U.S. market crash), and January 2016 (the China stealth devaluation and another U.S. market crash). Brainard understands the importance of avoiding international spillovers as the Fed goes about the business of tightening.

Brainard took the view that balance sheet reductions have a much smaller impact on exchange rates than interest rates hikes. She also took the view that one is a substitute for the other in terms of normalization. Therefore, when economic conditions are weak, as they are now, the Fed could continue balance sheet reductions, but pause on rate hikes to continue normalization while minimizing foreign exchange spillovers.

Brainard bases this view on something called the “interest rate parity” theory that says changes in short-term rates (those affected by the Fed policy rate) are a stronger determinant of exchange rates than intermediate term rates (those affect by balance sheet reductions).

The problem, as usual, is that the Fed’s theories bear no relation to reality.

Interest rate parity is an old idea that has little or no explanatory power today. I first learned it in the 1970s shortly after the end of fixed-exchange rates. Exchange rates today are driven by capital flows, which are driven by investor perceptions across a range of indicators that include all forms of Fed normalization.

The result of applying an obsolete theory will be an economic crack-up, probably in the form of a recession. This will produce a 20% decline in stock prices at best, and possibly a 30% market crash before the end of the year. This will be caused by Fed tightening (whether by the policy rate or balance sheet reductions) into weakness.

First quarter GDP growth was 1.4%, Second quarter growth is currently estimated by the Atlanta Fed at 2.4%. (That 2.4% estimate was down from the May 1 estimate of 4.3%, and the June 13 estimate of 3.0%; another clear sign of economic slowing).

If the second quarter is reported at at 2.4% level, it would put first-half GDP at 1.9%, which is lower than the historically weak 2.03% average annual growth since the end of the last recession in June 2009.

In short, growth is weak, inflation is weak, retail sales and real incomes are weak, labor force participation is low and stocks are at all-time highs. Brainard and Yellen made it clear that the Fed will continue to tighten through balance sheet reductions even if rate hikes are on hold.

Tight money, a weak economy, and a stock market bubble is a classic recipe for a stock market crash. It’s time for investors to go into a defensive crouch by selling stocks and reallocating assets to cash, Treasury notes, gold and gold mining shares.

In particular, gold will be the big winner when the Fed suddenly realizes its blunder and has to pivot quickly to ease, probably by late summer. The time to position in gold is right now.”

Regards,

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hKVMNMEQZHA/UzB0APtMl9I/AAAAAAAABfA/DmaerwdbN14/s1600/James+Rickards.jpg

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

ES Morning Update July 20th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 20th 2017

So far we've had a high overnight/premarket of 2476.25 and seem to be backing down a little from it this morning.  I've mentioned in the past that many times when the market runs up to an "all important" even number play (like 2500 SPX is, or 2000 was, and DOW 20,000, etc...) it will stall out within 10-20 points of that level as everyone is long at that point and just expects to see it automatically hit, where is a dream world they'd exit their longs and go short.  We all know that we don't live in a dream world but instead a world of the terminator, who's job is to take your money and trick you at every corner.  The computer algorithms that run this stock market (SkyNet is what I call it) are programed to mislead the public all the time.  Just when everyone is long it will reverse and go back down.  And just when everyone goes short it will rally back up out of nowhere and squeeze all the bears out.

The common pattern that's I've noticed is to get close to some important even number level and then fall back for a 1-3% pullback.  That takes out all the bulls that were long.  Then run back up again and bust through it by 15-20 points, which takes out all the bears that shorted the first pullback.  Then a 3-5% correction can start where the bears miss it as they are too afraid to short again and the bulls just keep buying the dips only to see it go lower.  I'd say we are about to see something similar happen again but the timing is off when compared to other periods.  What I mean is that we are going into a bearish period in August through October, which means we might only see the 1-3% pullback from the "close but not hit of the 2500 level", then a move back up to make a lower high... not a 15-20 point move over 2500.

Also, in prior periods, the 3-5% drop was followed by a long and strong rally that took out the high again and went up toward the next all important even number level.  So in prior times it was just a "close but no hit", "dip of 1-3%", "rip to over even number by 15-20 points", "correction of 3-5%, and then a "back to the long trend rally".  That's been the pattern probably since the 2009 lows... not every even number of course, but several.  But today we are entering the bearish months of the year, and we are extremely overbought long trend, with many Elliottwave wave chartist thinking it's possible that we are in our final 5th wave up since the bull market started back at the 2009 low.

So one has to ask themselves what the odds of that "rip to 15-20 points over the even number" happening this time around?  I have to put those odds as low right now and instead we should just see a lower high on the rally back up from the first pullback, which should be starting soon... like maybe today, Friday or Monday?  We are getting really close to being within 10-15 points of 2500 and we could already be "close enough"?  These numbers aren't written in stone but just common areas where it tops at in the past.  My thoughts are that we'll top out early next week, as this Friday we have the monthly options expiration and the market makers might want to keep it up at this high level to pin the SPY where all the puts below expire worthless.  I believe the max pain levels are a bit lower then the current 247 area that we are close to this morning, so maybe it pulls back a little on Friday and then rips one more time back up on Monday.  Anyway, I'm just waiting to short and believe it's coming in the next few days.  I'm still looking for at least a 100 points for the correction, and up to 200 points.  But we'll cross that road when we top and start the drop.

ES Morning Update July 19th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 19th 2017

This morning the bulls are at the goal line again and looking like they are going to score.  But the charts disagree as this 60 minute chart keeps making lower highs on its' MACD's showing weakness.  It's now a triple negative divergence, which of course means that the markets' price level goes higher while each divergence appears.  But how much higher is what determines the strength of the move and in this case all the bulls have done this morning is to create a double top at 2461.25, and from what I see in the charts I don't think they will get much further then that today.  There needs to be another day of sideways action I think for the bulls to get the strength to hit 2470, 2480 or so.  While it's not written in stone it's extremely common to see a fast (usually happens with a gap up) move up of 20+ on the last day (the top) before rolling over and starting a correction.  Rarely do they NOT do this run up to hit all the stops on the bears and then start the real move down.

So, for today I think they might (but wouldn't bet on it) squeeze out a few more points to the upside to make it official that they put in a new higher high, but I don't see much more then that today.  I'd expect some more sideways trading all day so the charts can have more time to reset back to bullish.  Currently the 6 hour MACD on the ES Futures is still overbought and just now starting to put in a few negative bars on the Histogram.  I've noticed that the market will trade sideways for awhile when this happens until the MACD's get a little lower (up near +5 to +6 right now) and start that hook back up pattern.  It basically pushes out the next rally attempt for another one or two days at most.  So maybe tomorrow or Friday we'll see that next squeeze up of 20+ points to take out the bears before rolling over and starting the correction.

This is supported on the SPX Index too as it's currently overbought on its' 60 minute chart and losing steam.  Give it another 1-2 days to reset and it should support a rally then as well.  Keep in mind that I do think this is the last move up of a larger 5th wave that should end this rally and start a correction down of at least 100 SPX points, if not 200?  Hard too know until we top, but I think we top just under 2500, and probably this week... maybe early next week.

The Fed’s New Plan Could Kill the Market as Soon as September

Red
-
0
The Fed’s New Plan Could Kill the Market as Soon as September

As far as the markets go, they've had an incredible run since 2009.

That's because the U.S. Federal Reserve bought more than $4 trillion worth of bonds and securities in the open market to flatten interest rates and buoy said markets.

But going forward, starting in September, the Fed's stopping its monthly purchases of billions of dollars' worth of bonds… and that could send the markets into a tailspin.

Today, I'm covering what Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in her recent Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress. More importantly, I'm covering what she didn't say, and what could happen starting in September.

If you own stocks, you're going to want to take this seriously…

How the Fed Is Currently Propping Up Our Markets

The bottom line is that the Fed doesn't have any capital to speak of. It buys bonds on made-up credit.

When it purchases bonds in the open market, from the big bank "primary dealers" it deals directly with, it pays them by issuing electronic credits. Banks and dealers use those credits to make loans or buy more bonds and securities themselves, which the Fed comes back to them to buy, again and again.

That's how that game was played.

The direct winners in that game were, of course, the big banks who were crushed by the financial meltdown in 2008 and needed rescuing.

The secondary winners were the markets. With so much credit available to borrowers who wanted to buy stocks and to companies who wanted to buy back their own shares, the markets not only recovered, they went on a tear.

Not only did the Fed buy bonds banks couldn't sell to other banks (because none of the big banks were technically solvent and were afraid if they sold bonds or securities to other banks, they would never get paid), and not only did the Fed buy bonds and securities that were at the time almost worthless. The Fed lent banks money so they could buy more government bonds from the Treasury and in the open market, which the Fed would then buy from the banks.

All that bond buying by banks – which helped lift bond prices and lower interest rates, which they then sold to the Fed for a nice profit, left the Fed with a balance sheet laden with $4.5 trillion worth of bonds and securities.

While all eyes have been on the Fed's interest rate moves (especially the three interest rate hikes it's made over the past three quarters), the Fed's balance sheet's been off everyone's radar.

Not anymore.

The process of "normalization," meaning letting interest rates rise from the artificially manipulated levels they were knocked down to, starts with the Fed hiking the fed funds rate.

The fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other when they lend each other money overnight. After the three hikes the Fed induced, the fed funds rate is now between 1% and 1.25%. That's an annualized rate.

It's the only rate the Fed directly influences, but it influences all other rates along the yield curve for government bonds, corporate and junk bonds, and, of course, loans. Hiking that is the outward path to normalization.

But the 800-pound gorilla in the room, the Fed's enormous balance sheet, has to be reduced to some normal level if we are ever to have free markets again.

The Shadows in the Fed's Solution

In her testimony to Congress this week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen addressed the Fed's intention to start to unwind its balance sheet starting, she said, "probably in September."

No one really knows what's going to happen when the Fed starts to unwind.

Unwinding doesn't mean selling the inventory of bonds and securities on their balance sheet. The Fed would never do that. Selling their inventory into the open market would crush bond prices, cause interest rates to spike, and probably cause markets (both stock and bond) to crash from the weight of their selling.

Instead of selling their inventory, the Fed's going to let the balance sheet "run off."

All that means is that, as bonds in inventory mature, they run off the balance sheet and aren't replaced.

The Fed actually stopped inflating its balance sheet in October 2014. However, it maintained the total amount of inventory it held by buying more bonds with the money they got when bonds they held matured. So even though they stopped inflating their balance sheet in 2014, they've still been buying just enough to replace maturing bonds.

Starting in September, they are going to let the balance sheet run off, let bonds mature, and not replace them. They will stop buying bonds altogether.

No one knows how the markets will react when the largest buyer of bonds on the planet (except for the Bank of Japan, the Japanese central bank) stops being a support for the markets.

The one thing I can tell you is rather frightening…

If the Fed stops rolling over its inventory, flat out stops buying bonds at the pace it has been, and lets its balance sheet run off? It will result in a whopping $600 billion in securities the "free market" will have to absorb over 2019 and 2020. That's equivalent to doubling the federal budget deficit.

Markets aren't going to take that lying down. If there isn't substantial economic growth (meaning the GDP expanding at 3.5% to 4%, at least), there could be an overhang of bonds in the market that depresses prices, causes interest rates to spike, the economy to stagnate, and the stock market to tank.

How the bond markets and then the stock market reacts to the Fed's unwind starting in September will be a crucial barometer for investors.

The first sign of distress in the markets may be your first and only warning. There might not be another.

I'll be watching all the big and little metrics that reveal what's really going on in "Bond and Stock Land." And you can be sure I'll tell you when it's time to sell.

Because it could be hammer time before you realize it.

This expert insight from SG-headshot-Shah.jpg (250×290)

ES Morning Update July 18th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 18th 2017

Yesterday I spoke of the blue rising trendline where the bulls needed to hit afterhours and bounce up from it or else they would be at risk of retesting the 2440 zone again. Looks like they failed to hold the line and are now in retest mode. There's a lot of support in that zone from various trendlines as you can see, so if we get down there I do expect it to hold. To me this move down looks like a wave 4 of some degree and next will be the wave 5 up that should end the move up from the 2405 starting point. On a larger scale we likely in some final 5th wave up on it too... meaning this should be the final rally before an ABC down correction starts, and it should last into early November. This will be the point where a crash could happen. No one's knows for sure but every thing is setup for one to appear. But we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

For now we'll just focus on the A wave down that should be somewhere between 100 and 200 SPX points. A retest of the May 18th low seems very likely for the A wave, which is currently a little over a 100 points lower. Personally I think it will retest the March 27th and April 13th lows but again we'll take it one day at a time. For today lets just expect this wave 4 down to retest prior resistance by the close today, or by Wednesday morning. This move down could sub-divide into an ABC down pattern to make the wave 4, so don't get too excited on going long on the first bottom and turn back up as it's likely just a small B wave up with a C down later that will retest that 2440 area. Maybe it takes until tomorrow to happen, or does it all today, but odds favor a move down to 2447.25 at minimum as that's the top of that sideways chop zone from last week.

ES Morning Update July 17th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update July 17th 2017

Good Monday Morning everyone.  In the charts this morning we have an overbought 6 hour MACD that's up in the 6.1 to 7.2 zone, which is about as high as it normally gets.  I've seen it hit 10 but not too often.  What usually happens when it gets up this high is that the market will trade sideways until it resets itself.  It could rollover and the market drop with it, but that's not the normal pattern.  Instead we could see several days of sideways action until it either rollovers over enough to become bearish or just resets back to neutral and then moves up again higher in the market later this week.  The daily chart on the SPX cash also supports more upside but short term (the 60 minute chart) it's looking pretty tired up here and might also want to trade sideways all day today.  Back to the 60 minute chart of the futures you'll see support from a rising blue trendline where we could hit afterhours today and provide another push higher Tuesday morning from the bull flag it's making.  If it fails there's still good support from the yellow falling trendline around 2435 and green rising trendline at 2440.  By tomorrow the red rising trendline will also be up around 2435 to add more support.  That entire 2440-2445 zone was prior resistance for quite awhile and will be support on any pullback this week.

For today I just don't see much action.  Just a sideways day most likely with a possible move higher afterhours.  But if the rising blue trendline breaks I'd look for a pullback to test the prior breakout area of 2435-2445, which might happen Tuesday?  I say that based on the fact that the 6 hour chart will hit the rising blue trendline afterhours today and it could either bounce from it and go a little higher into tomorrow or it could breakdown from it and drop on Tuesday.  Like I said, usually the market will trade sideways with the MACD up where it's at on the 6 hour chart, but a retest of prior resistance, now support might be the plan.  Pullback or not it does look like there's more upside yet to come.  How high is anyone's guess but it's really more about "time" then price as by the end of this week I think we'll see the daily charts overbought again with negative divergence on them.  And the weekly chart also has negative divergence on it as well.  So time is ticking for the bulls and upside seems limited.  Odds favor that reset of the breakout zone soon... where it's today during market hours, afterhours or tomorrow is unknown.  But I don't see that blue rising trendline holding forever.  Today... yeah, probably.  Afterhours... 50/50 chance I think.  And the VIX... WOW, that's just another long topic to talk about that I won't.  But let's just say that it's very, very oversold now.

IMF’s Lagarde doesn’t rule out another global financial crisis

Red
-
0
IMF’s Lagarde doesn’t rule out another global financial crisis
IMF’s Lagarde doesn’t rule out another global financial crisis

Another financial crisis is still possible, according to International Monetary Chief Christine Lagarde. She was commenting on a statement by US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who predicted she would not see another financial crisis in her lifetime.

A specialist trader works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange © Brendan McDermid

"There may, one day, be another crisis. I plan on having a long life, and I hope she (Yellen) does, too, so I wouldn't absolutely bet on that because there are cycles that we have seen over the past decade and I wouldn't exclude that,” Lagarde told CNBC on Tuesday.

She said that crises are usually unpredictable and come unexpectedly.

"Where it will come from, what form it takes, how international and broad-based it will be is to be seen, and typically the crisis never comes from where we expect it," Lagarde said.

"Our duty … is to make sure that your financial sector is under good supervision, that it's well regulated, that the institutions are rock-solid, and anticipate at home with enough buffers so that you can resist the potential crisis," she added.

The previous global financial crisis took place in 2007-2008 and is considered the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

It happened after the crash in the US housing market, and massive amounts of mortgage-backed securities and derivatives lost significant value. In the US alone, more than 7.5 million people lost their jobs. According to estimates, American households lost roughly $16 trillion in net worth as a result of the stock market plunge.

1...585960...134Page 59 of 134

© Copyright - Red Dragon Leo

s2Member®